October 2021 - Lawsons Equity

Inflation Beaters

How to ensure your money is protected from rising inflation

With current interest rates on cash savings very low, it is difficult to achieve growth above the rate of inflation. And if the cost of living is rising faster than your savings are growing, you’re effectively losing money. With cash savings, a penny saved is a penny earned. But thanks to inflation, over time, the value of the penny saved could be much less than when it was earned. When looking at investments, always focus on what is the real return or the return net of inflation. Over longer periods, well-managed investments usually grow by more than cash. Even if inflation isn’t a worry right now, you should still factor it into your investing strategy. Here we explain in simple terms how to beat inflation.

Consistently Outpaced Inflation

Investments that change in value a lot day-to-day tend to increase in value the most over several years. Investments that change in value a little day-to-day tend to increase by less over several years. So, if it doesn’t worry you to see falls in value occasionally, and you have enough money in other places that it wouldn’t affect your lifestyle, you might target high growth with higher risk investments, for example, a portfolio of equities. Investing in equities over a long period has consistently outpaced inflation.

Lower Risk Investments

Otherwise, you might target just enough growth to beat inflation with lower-risk investments. One example is bonds: loans given to governments and companies that are repaid at a fixed rate of interest. Either way, there is always the risk that you could lose money, so you should keep enough savings separately in a cash account to cover any emergency expenses and short-term savings goals.

Ahead Of Inflation

One good way of staying ahead of inflation is buying stocks that pay good dividends. Dividends are a tangible return paid by companies and keep up with inflation. And just like inflation, dividends, too, can be calculated annually. This figure, called the dividend yield, can be measured by adding dividends received during the year and dividing it by the stock price. The yield must be higher than the annual inflation rate. Asset allocation is also critical. In this, one can look at an opportunity to diversify globally. This will make your portfolio more stable and less vulnerable to domestic volatility and inflation.

Investing Tax-Efficiently

Because investments have potentially higher returns than cash savings, it’s important to protect your returns from tax. Two common ways to do this are through Individual Savings Accounts
(ISAs) and pensions.

ISAs currently allow you to invest up to 20,000 a year (tax year 2020/21), which can provide a tax-efficient return through interest, capital gains and dividend income. Pensions offer the same benefits, plus tax relief on your contributions up to a maximum of 40,000 a year (or 100% of your salary if it is less than 40,000). However, you can’t currently access your pension money until you reach age 55.

Protect Your Portfolio From Inflation

Inflation is low, but that doesn’t mean investors should ignore it. To create a portfolio aligned with your goals and choosing the right inflation-beating investment vehicles, it’s important you have a good mix of investments in your portfolio. To discuss your options, please contact us today to find out more.

Information is based on our current understanding of taxation legislation and regulations. Any levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are subject to change.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Market Update October Monday 25th 2021

Company results propel markets higher

Strong company earnings results helped propel global equity markets higher this week, despite rising inflationary concerns and expectations for rate hikes being brought forward. US equities in particular recorded yet another new high, with Tesla, amongst others, reporting robust results for the third quarter despite ongoing supply chain issues. Almost all results now feature comments on rising input costs, with the differentiating factor being whether companies are able to pass these higher costs onto end consumers. Government bond yields, which move inversely to price, continued their recent ascent as markets increasingly prepare for monetary tightening away from emergency levels, introduced in the depths of the Covid pandemic crisis.

As of 12pm on Friday, London time, US equities rose 1.8% over the week, whilst the technology sector increased by 2.1%, although remaining slightly shy of its previous all-time high. European markets were up 0.8%, whilst the UK equity market fell 0.1%, with the materials sector, in particular, weighing on its performance. Japanese equities fell 1.1%, whilst the Australian market rose 1.3%. Emerging markets were up by 0.7%, with Hong Kong stocks rising 3.1%.

Government bond yields continue to climb higher

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 1.69%, as headline consumer price inflation reported last week came in above five percent for the fourth month in a row. The latest minutes of the Federal Reserve noted that US central bankers are sticking to the line that inflation will be transitory. Whilst the UK’s Bank of England new chief economist, Huw Pill, flagged expectations that UK inflation will rise above 4% by the year-end, despite September’s number coming in beneath expectations at 3.1%. Expectations for a UK rate rise have been brought forward by the market to November, with a further rate hike in the first half of next year. German bund yields rose to -0.08% with European headline inflation (including food and energy) coming in line with forecasts at 3.4%. However, German headline inflation came in at 4.1%, a level not seen for twenty-nine years.

Crude oil continued to grind higher, with Brent touching $86 a barrel intra-week, now trading at $85.5, whilst US WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is trading at $83.3. Gold rose 1.4% over the week, trading at $1,793 an ounce, whilst copper fell 3.2%, now trading at $10,078.

Issues under discussion

Choosing to lean into the economic recovery

Inflationary pressures are not abating as central bankers had imagined, and expectations of interest rate hikes are being brought forward. However, this should be viewed in the context of emergency levels of rates being removed rather than an outright attempt to tighten monetary policy. Whether inflation proves to be transitory or not will not be known for definite until the first half of next year.

However, as most assets are priced off the risk-free rate, which more often or not is the US Treasury yield, this increase in yields will impact market valuations. Those companies in structurally growing industries, with strong earnings priced out into the future are most vulnerable to increases in yields. However, on the flipside of this argument, many of these companies also have pricing power and the ability to maintain their profit margins whilst operating in markets with many more years of growth forecast.

Whereas economically sensitive companies most geared into the economic recovery, the so-called ‘value’ stocks, with earnings expected to rise the most proportionally, often do not have pricing power. These companies typically trade on much cheaper valuations.

Passing on Pension Benefits

Providing For Your Loved Ones After Your Death

If you have not yet accessed your pension, or you have made withdrawals from your pension but left some money invested, it can usually be passed to a beneficiary after your death. The specifics, for example, in what form they will receive these death benefits and whether they will pay tax, will depend on your individual circumstances (such as your age) and the scheme rules.

Annuity Death Benefits

If you have used your pension savings already to purchase an annuity, this can only be passed on to a beneficiary in certain cases, which must be established when the annuity is purchased. A typical lifetime annuity only provides a guaranteed income for the lifetime of the annuity holder, regardless of how long this is.

For your annuity income to go to a loved one after your death you must choose either an annuity with a guarantee period (which provides an income for a set period, whether you are still living or not) or a joint life annuity (which provides an income for life for whichever partner lives longest).

State Pension Inheritance

In certain circumstances, your partner can continue to receive your State Pension after your death. For example, if you’re a man born before 1951 or a woman born before 1953, and you’re receiving the Additional State Pension, this can be inherited by your partner (husband, wife or registered civil partner) after your death if they have reached the State Pension age.

Providing An Income Or Nest Egg For Your Loved Ones To Enjoy

You’ve worked and saved throughout your life so that your pension will provide you with enough to live on in retirement. Now, thanks to changes in the way that pensions are taxed, more of your fund can survive your death and provide an income or nest egg for your loved ones to enjoy, long after you are gone. Contact us to find out more.

Market Update October Monday 18th 2021

Strong company results alleviate fears over rising inflationary pressures

A flurry of strong company results this week helped alleviate investors’ fears over the impact on earnings of rising inflationary pressures and potential interest rate rises. From Taiwan semiconductor manufacturer TSMC, through to Citigroup and the US drug retailer Walgreens Boots Alliance, all posted forecast-beating results this week. Even the European luxury group LVMH released results showing that Chinese demand had held up despite the manufacturing slowdown and regulatory crackdown in China. Therefore, despite annual US headline inflation being reported above 5% for the fifth month in a row and US unemployment falling to 4.8%, raising expectations for monetary tightening, equity markets made strong gains this week.

US equities rose 1.1% over the week

As of 12pm London time on Friday, US equities rose 1.1% over the week, with the technology sector climbing 1.7%. European equities are on course for their strongest week since March, having risen 2.2%, whilst the UK market was up 1.7%. The Japanese stock market increased by 3.2%, helped by further weakness in the Yen increasing the competitive position of large industry companies. Emerging markets advanced by 0.8%, with Hong Kong stocks rising by 2.0%, led by the consumer and industrial sectors.

US Treasury bonds remained robust

Despite any sign of inflationary pressures abating anytime soon, with pressures if anything broadening out, bond yields, which more inversely to price, fell this week. 10-year US Treasury yields are now trading at 1.54%, UK gilts 1.1% and German bunds -0.18%. Earlier in the week, demand for 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds remained robust, with the bid to cover ratio remaining above two times, helping to pull yields lower.

The oil price ground higher

The oil price ground higher this week, with Brent crude now trading at $84.8 a barrel, up 3.0%, and US WTI (West Texas Intermediate) trading at $82.1. Copper jumped by over 10%, with the price having risen above $10,000 once more, currently trading at $10,131. Gold rose 1.5%, now priced at $1,783 an ounce.

The US awaits retail sales data

The latest US retail sales data is due out later today, which will provide an indication as to whether price rises are choking off demand, or whether retail sales remain a strong driver of the economic recovery. This will provide another piece in the puzzle for the Federal Reserve as to when to commence the tapering of its vast bond-buying programme.

Pension Options

Planning your financial future and how to get there

One thing retirement is not, is an age. Not anymore, anyway. Gone are the days of being told to stop working one day and pick up your State Pension the next.

Today you have new pension freedoms to decide when and how you retire.

Pension freedoms in 2015 fundamentally changed the rules for cashing in your pensions. Current rules allow you far more freedom and flexibility over how to take your pension than in previous generations.

If you’ve saved into a defined contribution pension scheme during your working life, you’ll eventually need to decide what to do with the money you’ve saved towards your pension when you retire, or at age 55, whichever is sooner.

Leaving your pension invested

At the other end of the scale, you have the option to withdraw all the savings in your pension at once. But this option has serious drawbacks, as clearly you won’t be able to take an income from your pension if you’ve withdrawn all the money. You may also receive a significant tax bill
to pay. While the first 25% of your pension can be taken tax-free, you’ll pay income tax on the rest. It would be unwise to do this without obtaining expert professional financial advice.

Withdrawing your entire pension

Withdrawing a portion of your pension

You can withdraw a lump sum from your pension and leave the rest invested to continue growing. Up to 25% of the lump sum will be tax-free and the rest will be taxed as income. So, the amount of tax you’ll pay will depend on your other sources of income.

Buying an Annuity

An annuity is a guaranteed income for life (or for another set period). The income you’ll receive depends on how much you have in pension savings with which to buy an annuity, as well as some other factors, such as your health. If you choose to buy an annuity, you can also take up
to 25% as a tax-free lump sum when you start your retirement.

Taking a Flexible Income From your Pension

Finally, you can take a regular income from your pension while it remains invested and has the opportunity to grow. You can take this income at whatever rate you want, but you are responsible for ensuring it lasts throughout your retirement years. Your professional financial adviser will help you establish a sustainable withdrawal rate and make sure that the rest of your pension is invested appropriately.

Understanding Your Options

If you have a defined contribution pension, at some point you’ll have to decide how you’re going to take it. But if you’re still working in your 50s or 60s, now’s the perfect time to make sure your retirement savings are on track to provide you with the sort of lifestyle you want when you stop work. To find out more, please contact us.

Market Update October Sunday 10th 2021

US debt ceiling crisis averted once again

Equity markets rose this week, helped by US Congress reaching an agreement to extend the US debt ceiling, albeit temporarily, allowing the US government to avoid default and continuing to fund its activities until early December. Over the years this has become a very familiar reoccurrence, which never fails to induce anxiety in markets, despite always being resolved (at least to date!). This arrested a fall in the US stock market which had taken it halfway to a correction (a 10% fall) since its peak in early September, and a fall of over 7% in the technology sector.

Stocks rise, with the financials and energy sectors outperforming

As of 12pm London time on Friday, the US stock market advanced by 1.0% over the week, whilst the technology sector rose 0.6%. European stocks increased by 1.1%, whilst the UK’s stock market climbed by a lacklustre 0.3%. However, this masked a large discrepancy in performance between large and mid-cap stocks, with the former returning 0.8% and the latter falling by 2.0%, as financials and energy stocks outperformed, which the large cap index has a much higher exposure towards. Japanese equities lost 1.2%, with the potential for tax rises following the confirmation of Fumio Kishida as the new Prime Minister.

The Australian market rose 1.9%, benefitting from a high weighting to both financial and commodity stocks. Emerging Markets rose 0.5%, with the Chinese domestic ‘A’ share market rising after a public holiday, as the latest Caixin purchasing managers index for services exceeded expectations, coming in at 53.4 versus forecasts of 46.7. Any number above 50 indicates companies continue to enjoy an expansionary business environment.

Rising energy prices add fuel to inflation worries

Inflationary pressures continued to be front and centre of investors’ minds, as energy prices continued their upward march. At the extreme, UK natural gas futures for delivery in November rose almost 70% by mid-week, before coming all the way back down as President Vladimir Putin said Russia was prepared to supply greater volumes to Europe.

Crude oil pushed higher too, as OPEC+ (Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries + Russia) maintained their current oil supply schedule despite pressure from Washington to increase it. Brent crude is currently trading at $82.5 a barrel, a level not seen for three years, although still significantly below the average of $103 experienced in the first half of the last decade, post the financial crisis.

Government bond yields rise to three-month highs

Against this, US Treasury yields, which move inversely to price, have been steadily climbing, with the 10-year up another twelve basis points, taking the yield to 1.58%, the highest level for three months. It was a similar picture in both the UK and Europe, with 10-year Gilts rising to a yield of 1.11% and German Bunds -0.16%. With this move, more economically sensitive companies, or so called ‘value’ stocks, have once again been outperforming, following a pause over the summer when ‘growth’ stocks, or less economically sensitive companies such as technology stocks, outperformed.

Politicians advocating wage rises complicate the picture for central bankers

Central banks, in the near term at least, have slowly been losing the argument that inflationary pressures are transitory, a result of the reopening of economies that will subsequently pass given time. It remains too early to tell whether they will ultimately be correct or not, however, increasingly they are conceding that inflationary pressures are unlikely to ebb away anytime soon. The picture is further complicated by politicians advocating for employee wage rises, as has been experienced within the truck driving community throughout Europe because of driver shortages.

All eyes once more on US jobs report due out later today

Later today, the latest US jobs report, the non-farm payrolls, is due to be released, with expectations that five hundred thousand new jobs will have been created. A number of this size or more is likely to be sufficient for the US Federal Reserve to announce a tapering of its bond purchasing programme in November, which would be one step closer to a rate rise, currently expected in late 2022.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is being provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice concerning investments or investment decisions, or tax or legal advice. Similarly, any views or options expressed on this website are not intended and should not be construed as being investment, tax or legal advice or recommendations. Investment advice should always be based on the circumstances of the person to whom it is directed, which circumstances have not been taken into consideration by the persons expressing the views or opinions appearing on this website. Lawsons Equity Limited has not verified and consequently neither warrants the accuracy nor the veracity of any information, views or opinions appearing on this website. You should always take professional investment advice in connection with, or independently research and verify, any information that you find or views or opinions which you read on our website and wish to rely upon, whether for the purpose of making an investment decision or otherwise. Lawsons Equity Limited does not accept liability for losses suffered by persons as a result of information, views or opinions appearing on this website. This website is owned and operated by Lawsons Equity Limited.

Citizen vs Resident – Understanding the difference

The contrasts between citizenship, residency and tax residency aren’t always obvious. However, they can make a profound difference to your living costs and security as an expat.

Let’s clarify each status and the associated rights they afford.

Defining Citizenship Rights

As a UK national, you’ll have automatic British citizenship. In essence, your allegiance is to your country of birth, which has several rights (and an obligation or two).

British citizens can:

Leave and re-enter the country whenever they wish, without needing a permit.
Vote, and hold positions in public office.
Claim rights to things like social security benefits and healthcare.

We mentioned obligations, and as a citizen, you can be called on to serve on a jury. Aside from the need to comply with laws and national regulations, there aren’t any other fundamental requirements.

Citizenship by Naturalisation

You can hold a passport for a different country from the one you were born in by applying for citizenship through naturalisation or investment.

Citizenship is usually granted because:

You have lived in the country for a minimum number of years.
You have been a permanent resident for a requisite period.
You have family members who hold citizenship.
You have been granted citizenship through an investment programme.

Many countries require citizenship applicants to take a language test or pass examinations in local history or customs. You can also be asked to attend an oath swearing ceremony. Once you have become a citizen, it’s unlikely that status could ever be taken away – unless you renounce your citizenship or commit a serious crime that gives the government a reason to strip your rights.

The Difference Between Residency and Citizenship

The most significant contrast between residency and citizenship is that you don’t have a second passport as a resident. There are limitations on things you can do. For example, a resident cannot vote or hold public office positions, but a citizen can. However, an expat living in another country as a permanent resident has pretty much the same freedoms as citizens, and can work, live, start a business and use all public services.

Permanent residency is often available after five to seven years of living in the country. You’re still a resident, as opposed to a citizen, but won’t need to renew your permit.

If you wanted full citizenship rights, including a domestic passport, you’d need to apply for citizenship after a minimum number of years.

The Difference Between Being a Resident and a Tax Resident

To complicate matters, you can be a tax resident in two countries or hold a residence permit without being considered a tax resident. Tax residency is a technical definition used to determine which country you are obliged to file returns and pay taxes in.

As a rule of thumb, you become a tax resident if:

You live in a country for 183 days (six months) or more in the year.
Your primary residence or business is in the country.
Your income derives from work of trade within the same country.

Now, it’s worth pointing out that you can be a tax-resident in two countries simultaneously. Say you have a primary home in two places and spend an equal six months in each; you could potentially fit the criteria for tax residency in both.

In that situation, your tax position will depend on factors such as:

Double tax treaties – many countries have bilateral agreements not to tax the same individual twice on the same income or activities.
Tiebreaker rules – these look closely at your activities and income structure to make a call on which country you are a tax-resident of if you meet the criteria for both.

Understanding your tax residency status is crucial for expat financial planning.

If you intend to live in a country most of the time and wish to take advantage of beneficial tax regimes, it’s worth seeking guidance to ensure you fit soundly within the rules. You may also have to continue filing returns with HMRC in the UK and can be liable for British taxes on some income, depending on the nature of the revenue and where it originates.

Residency in Multiple Countries

Just as expats can be dual tax-residents, they can also be dual residents and dual citizens – although not all at once.

Dual citizenship means you hold two passports. Most countries recognise dual citizenship, although some don’t permit foreign nationals to enter with two passports.
Dual tax-residency means you meet the rules for tax-residency in two countries, and therefore need to apply double tax treaty rules to establish the right place to declare and pay your taxes.
Dual residency means you hold two simultaneous resident permits for two different countries.

Note that understanding tax treaties can become highly complex, so you should seek professional advice to ensure your affairs are properly managed.

The Rules on EU Travel as a UK Citizen

One of the common questions the Lawsons Equity team deals with is confusion over travel permits, tourist visas, residency rights and long-term citizenship eligibility for EU countries. The good news is that if you were lawfully resident in a European country before Brexit, you have ongoing rights protected by the Withdrawal Agreement. However, you may need to re-register for residency or apply for a permit, even if you haven’t been required to carry one before.

Now, the Schengen area offers short-term travel access with the same rules across the bloc. You can travel to an EU member country for up to 90 days of any 180, without needing a visa or tourist permit. That 90-day limit applies throughout the participating countries, so a series of shorter trips would all count towards the limit.

However, you will need a residence permit to move to the EU from now on. As a UK citizen, you aren’t an automatic EU citizen anymore, so that would involve a longer process, which we’ll run through below.

Securing Citizenship Rights as an Expat

If you’re interested in the typical system to progress from residency through to citizenship, this is how it usually works:

An expat applies for a residency permit to live in another country for a fixed number of years.
That permit is usually renewable and can be transferred to a permanent residency permit after a set period.
Usually, after five years or more, a permanent resident can apply for full citizenship.

Long-term citizenship rights are the most secure, but if you aren’t sure whether you intend to live permanently in another country, permanent residency affords most of the rights and entitlements available. If you are keen to apply for citizenship status, a final option is to look at citizenship by immigration programmes. You can obtain a second passport by donating a value to the government or investing in real estate or business over a threshold – depending on where you wish to live.

The Portuguese Golden Visa is one such initiative, offering a renewable residency permit for two years with an investment of €500,000 (depending on the area). After five years, permit holders can apply for permanent residency and citizenship, although the latter requires evidence of ties with the country and basic language abilities.

Understanding your position as a tax resident, resident or citizen can be crucial when looking at factors such as inheritance planning. If you’re in any doubt, it’s essential to review your current visa or permit and look at the available options. For help, support and advice on any aspect of trustworthy and reliable financial support, get in touch with our team at Lawsons Equity today.

Lawsons Equity – Financial Advisors Malta

As a privately owned firm with no ties to any products or providers, accredited and regulated to the highest of standards, Lawsons Equity provides tailored, transparent advice for expats.

Lawsons Equity Limited is a company registered in Malta with company number C49564 and licensed by the Malta Financial Services Authority as Enrolled Insurance Brokers under the Insurance Intermediaries Act 2006, and to provide Investment Services under the Investment Services Act, 1994.

Lawsons Equity Ltd have passported their services across the EU. To see a full list of countries click here.

24th September – 1st October 2021

Despite a Friday rally, large-cap benchmarks recorded their biggest weekly drops since February and rounded out the worst monthly declines since the onset of the pandemic, seemingly weighed down by inflation and interest rate fears.

Throughout the week, rising US Treasury yields continued to overshadow sentiment, with many investors appearing to take the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement from the previous week in a more hawkish manner. Following the meeting, policymakers indicated a small increase in their short-term interest rate projections, as well as intentions to reduce monthly asset purchases. At midweek, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note reached a three-month high before sliding down to finish the week roughly where it began.

The fiscal policy environment also appeared unsettling. The possibility that the federal government would experience another partial shutdown was averted late in the week when the Senate and the House of Representatives passed, and President Joe Biden signed, a short-term spending bill. No progress was made in raising the federal debt limit, however, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned again that the limit needed to be suspended or raised by October 18 in order for the Treasury to meet its obligations. While most observers agree that an actual default on the country’s debt is highly unlikely—especially given that Democrats may turn to tools to do it unilaterally—substantial market volatility followed previous episodes of brinkmanship a decade ago.

Meanwhile, the outlook for the bipartisan, $1 trillion infrastructure bill also remained clouded. Democratic leaders abandoned plans for a vote on the bill on Thursday evening, following demands from progressives in the party to link its passage to a separate bill focusing on health care, education, climate measures, and other social policy priorities.

The week’s inflation data was arguably not alarming, with the Commerce Department’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rising 3.6% over the 12 months ending in August, matching consensus. Continuing reports of supply restraints seemed to concern investors, however. Shares in Nike, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Kohl’s fell sharply, for example, after the companies reported stressed supply chains and higher labor costs ahead of the holiday shopping season. The recent surge in oil prices, which benefited energy stocks, also raised broader inflation worries, with Crude Oil WTI up 2.43% for the week.

US small and mid-cap indexes ended with only modest losses. Declines within the S&P 500 were broad-based at -2.2% for the week, with only energy shares notching a gain. Growth stocks fared worse than value shares, which was mirrored in the underperformance of the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, down 3.2%. Shares in Europe fell sharply amid fears that the economy might be sliding into a period of low growth and high inflation. In local currency terms, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended the week 2.24% lower as eurozone consumer prices jumped 3.4% in August—up from 3% a month earlier and the highest level since September 2008.

Japanese stocks followed the lead of U.S. markets and declined during the week. The Nikkei 225 Index lost 4.89%, whilst in China stocks ended the week on a mixed note. The Shanghai Composite Index declined from the previous weeks close whilst the Hang Seng Index edged up 0.26% as positive news concerning indebted property developer China Evergrande Group supported investor sentiment.

Month: October 2021